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Prediction for CME (2014-03-28T23:58:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2014-03-28T23:58ZCME was not detected at Earth. Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-04-01T05:00Z Prediction Method: Other (SIDC) Prediction Method Note: :Issued: 2014 Mar 29 1234 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 40329 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Mar 2014, 1203UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 29 Mar 2014 until 31 Mar 2014) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given) PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Mar 2014 10CM FLUX: 146 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Mar 2014 10CM FLUX: 143 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Mar 2014 10CM FLUX: 141 / AP: 007 COMMENT: NOAA AR 2017 produced two M class flares (M2.0 peak 19:18 UT and M2.6 peak 23:51 UT on March 28). The flares were associated with two halo CMEs, the first one with speeds of 412km/s (first seen by LASCO-C2 at 20:00 UT) and the second one 557 km/s (at 23:58 UT). The combination of these CMEs may arrive to the Earth and cause up to minor storm conditions by 1 April around 05:00 UT. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled, no disturbances are expected in the next 48h. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 085, BASED ON 20 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 28 Mar 2014 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 146 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 020 AK WINGST : 009 ESTIMATED AP : 009 ESTIMATED ISN : 084, BASED ON 22 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 28 1904 1918 1927 N11W21 M2.0 SN 98/2017 V/2II/2 28 2344 2351 2358 ////// M2.6 98/2017 II/2 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#Lead Time: 64.43 hour(s) Difference: ----- Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-03-29T12:34Z |
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